CP in October, 2026 : 705 USD/t (+ 62.5 USD from September)
C3 : USD 680 (+ 55 USD from September)/ C4 : 730 (+ 70 USD from September)
The October Contract Price (CP) rose against a backdrop of uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East and procurement risks ahead of the winter season.
The October CP was finalized at $680 per metric ton for propane (up $55 from the previous month) and $730 per metric ton for butane (up $70). On September 21st , hopes for dialogue between the U.S. and Iran spread; the following day, news of Iran’s proposal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and the resumption of operations at Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline eased supply concerns, causing crude oil prices to fall.
However, supply anxieties reignited due to fears of stalled negotiations and the Houthi movement’s announcement on the 25th regarding attacks on Saudi-linked facilities.
While the WTI crude oil price dropped by $3.20—from $95.80 per barrel on September 21st to $92.60 on the 28th—October CP futures rose during the same period, with propane climbing from $644.73 to $664.61 per metric ton and butane from $687.73 to $701.61 per metric ton.
Furthermore, although measures such as ship-to-ship transfers were reported regarding LPG supplies from the Middle East, transportation risks persisted.
Thus, the rise in CP futures—occurring even as WTI prices fell—was driven by concerns over LPG supply and logistics as well as procurement risks leading into winter, all of which contributed to the increase in the October CP.
Looking ahead, uncertainty surrounding the situation between the United States and Iran remains. Therefore, LPG prices may continue to fluctuate depending on developments in crude oil prices and the situation in the Middle East. We will continue to closely monitor market conditions.
(Reference: ENEOS Weekly Report, Astomos Energy Monthly Report, RIM)
Please note that this outlook represents our company’s current view and does not guarantee future CP price movements.
